公共英语四级
Many phrases used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft land-ing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The relation between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long,variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% one year, close to its lowest lev-el in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% the next July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
It is also less than most forecasters has predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America´s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole.
In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past few years, inflation has been continually lower than expected in Britain and America.
Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially that of A-merica, have little productive slack. America´s capacity utilisation, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment--the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models which were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
According to the text，making monetary policy changes__________．
A．is comparable to driving a car
B．is similar to carrying out scientific work
C．will not influence the economy immediately
D．will have an immediate impact on the inflation rate
许多描述货币政策的说法，像“引导经济软着陆”或“轻微抑制”，听起来像是一门精确的科学。事实上远非如此。利率和通货膨胀之间的关系是不确定的。并且在政策变动对经济产生影响之前，会有漫长多变的滞后期。所以有这样一个类比，把货币政策行为比作驾驶一辆挡风漆黑。后视镜碎裂，方向盘失灵的汽车。
尽管有这么多的不利条件，中央银行工作人员似乎仍有很多东西去吹嘘。有一年7个工业大国的平均通货膨胀率降至2．3％，接近30年来的最低点，下一年7月略有回升，至2．5％。这和许多国家70年代和80年代初经历的两位数的通货膨胀率相比，可是大大降低了。
这比大多数预言者们预测的也低多了。1994年底《经济学家》杂志每个月都要对其进行意见调查的经济学家小组说，美国的平均通货膨胀率到1995年将达3．5％。事实上，8月份通货膨胀率降至2．6％，预期全年平均值也只有大约3％。英国和日本的通货膨胀率比去年年底预期的要低0．5个百分点。这并非昙花一现；在过去几年里，英国和美国的通货膨胀率持续低于预期水平。
经济学家们尤其对英美两国的可喜的通货膨胀数字感到惊讶，因为传统判断方法显示两国经济，尤其是美国经济，并没有多少可供充分利用的闲置资源。例如，美国对生产力的利用能力在今年早些时候达到历史最高水平，而且失业率(8月份是5．6％)降至低于多数对正常失业率的估计值的水平——过去在正常失业率水平通货膨胀率是会激增的。
为什么通货膨胀率增长缓慢呢?很不幸，最令人感到惊奇的解释其实有点问题。有些经济学家认为，世界格局的剧变已使过去以经济增长和通货膨胀之间的历史联系为基础的旧经济模式倒转过来。
答案及解析
文章第一段提到了：And there are long，variable lags be-fore policy changes have any effect on the economy．政策对经济的影响有一个长期的间隔期。即政策的变化不会立亥0影响经济。
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