公共英语五级
Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $ 26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979 -80, when they also
almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price highe,r still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries has reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, its oil prices averaged $ 22 a barrel for a full year, compared with
$13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25 -0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted-have become mote energy-intensive, and so could be mote seriously squeezed.
One mote reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not oc- curred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist' s commodity price index is broadly unchang-ing from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70% and in 1979 by almost 30%.
The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is _______.
A．global inflation
B．reduction in supply
C．fast growth in economy
D．Iraq' s suspension of exports
石油输出国组织在3月份决定减少原油供应。原油价格立即猛涨了3倍。本周伊拉克暂停石油出口，这使得油价又一次上扬。强劲的经济增长势头，随着北半球冬季的到来，有可能在短期内使石油价格涨得更高。但是人们并不恐慌，这是因为现在多数国家的原油价格占汽油价格的份额要小很多，发达国家对石油的依赖性也不如从前，因此对油价的波动也就不会那么敏感了。另外一个原因是，与20世纪70年代不同，这次油价上升并不是发生在普遍的物价暴涨及全球需求过旺背景之下。
答案及解析
B 【解析】文章的第二句中“Since OPEC agreed to supply—cuts in March，the price of crude oil has jumped to almost$26 a barrel，…”，说明油价上涨是由于石油输出国组织最近的减少供应导致的。故应选B。
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